Schools and academies with KS1 pupils are now able to access end of KS1 estimates from the Fischer Family Trust (FFT), based on EYFSP outcomes, for their Year 1 and 2 pupils, in the "Development" area of the FFTLive website.
Analyses providing estimates for Key Stage 1 (KS1) attainment using Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) data were piloted in 2010 and, following positive feedback, made available to all schools and LAs in July 2011.
The pilot examined the relationship between EYFSP and KS1 outcomes. The following charts show the average KS1 level achieved for two combinations:
EYFSP Communications, Language and Literacy (CLL) -> KS1 Reading Level
EYFSP Problem Solving, Reasoning and Numeracy (MAT) -> KS1 Mathematics Level
There is a consistent relationship between EYFSP scores and their ‘equivalent’ at KS1. Please note that by using the term ‘equivalent’ we are not implying that the EYFSP and KS1 outcomes are assessing the same set learning competencies and skills – merely that there is a consistent relationship between EYFSP assessments and KS1 attainment levels.
If we look, for example, at the range of outcomes in KS1 mathematics for pupils with MAT_AOL scores between 18 and 22, we find:
Mean KS1 Mathematics Level is 2.62 (i.e. slightly above level 2B)
13% of pupils attained level 3
4% of pupils attained level 1
This reminds us that overall (estimated) levels can mask the range of outcomes for pupils with similar prior-attainment score.
A statistical method for looking at the strength of the relationship between inputs (EYFSP prior attainment) and outcomes (KS1attainment) is called correlation. In broad terms, a correlation of 0 (zero) implies that there is no relationship and a correlation of 1 implies that there is a ‘perfect’ relationship i.e. the same input always results in the same output. In most education research, a correlation of 0.7 or higher is taken to mean that the relationship is sufficiently strong for further analysis. Correlations of 0.8 or above are considered to be high.
Overall, the FFT investigations showed that:
the relationship between EYFSP assessments and KS1 outcomes were sufficiently good to warrant the development of models for analysis of value-added and calculation of estimates;
simplistic models, such as those using a single EYFSP overall or individual element provided lower levels of accuracy and were not felt to be sufficiently reliable
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